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    Inherits="Help" Title="Help" %>

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    <h1>
        Help topics</h1>
    <ul>
        <li><a href="#idea">What is the idea behind the Forecast Exchange?</a></li>
        <li><a href="#<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_STOCKVALUE %>">What is the value of a stock?</a></li>
        <li><a href="#<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_EARNMONEY %>">How do I earn money?</a></li>
        <li><a href="#<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_NEWPREDICTION %>">What happens when a new
            prediction is created?</a></li>
        <li><a href="#<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_PREDICTIONCLOSED %>">What happens when a prediction
            is closed?</a></li>
        <li><a href="#<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_BUY %>">How do I buy stocks?</a></li>
        <li><a href="#<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_SELL %>">How do I sell stocks?</a></li>
        <li><a href="#<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_CANCEL %>">How do I cancel an offer I made?</a></li>
        <li><a href="#icons">Overview of the icons used on this site</a></li>
    </ul>
    <div class="horRule">
        <hr />
    </div>
    <a name="idea">
        <h2>
            What is the idea behind the Forecast Exchange?</h2>
    </a>
    <p>
        The idea of The Forecast Exchange is to provide a tool to better predict the future.
        The main idea is that by giving everyone involved in a project of any kind a small
        incentive to help guess at the outcome, "the future", the overall effect will be to
        end up with a probability of some future prediction coming through that is closer than 
        any one single individual can make. 
    </p>
    <p>
        This is not a new idea. It is called a <b>prediction market</b> and is already in
        use in several areas and is used in <b>risk management</b> in an effort to control the
        future. The <a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/">Iowa Electronics Market</a>
        have over the last twenty years outperformed the national election polls at guessing
        how the elections would go. The American government wanted to set up a prediction
        market where you could bet in which Arabic country the next coup would happen, but
        it was deemed unethical. The <a href="http://www.hsx.com/">Hollywood Stock Exchange</a>
        has succeeded in giving the film industry quite good estimates on how well certain
        movies will do. Some major drug companies are using it to predict which of their
        new product ideas are most likely to succeed financially by having their employees
        play in an internal prediction market with some minor financial benefits if they do
        well.
    </p>
    <p>
        You can read more about this in the book <i><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds">
            The Wisdom of Crowds</a></i> by James Surowiecki, where we got the idea from.
    </p>
    <p>
        See also
        <asp:HyperLink runat="server" Text="the About page" NavigateUrl="~/About.aspx" />.
    </p>
    <div class="horRule">
        <hr />
    </div>
    <a name="<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_STOCKVALUE %>">
        <h2>
            What is the value of a stock?</h2>
    </a>
    <p>
        There is only one time when the real value of a stock in a prediction is known, and that
        is at the end of the prediction when it is decided if it has failed or not. If the
        prediction fails, a stock in the prediction is worth 0. If the prediction succeeds, 
        a stock in the prediction is worth 100. Before this time a stock in the prediction is 
        worth something between 0 and 100, reflecting the probability of the prediction coming 
        through.
    </p>
    <p>
        For example, a prediciton is made. In the beginning, in most well made predictions 
        a stock will be worth around 50, meaning that the prediction have about a 50 % chance 
        of succeeding. After a while, you get hold of information that seems to indicate 
        that it is less likely that the prediction will succeed than at the beginning. 
        You now think that the prediction only has about 20 % chance of succeeding. To you, 
        a stock is now worth 20. If someone now offers to buy this prediction for more than 20 
        you should sell and make a profit.
    </p>
    <p>
        The last price anyone has paid for a stock in a prediction is also an indicator of 
        what that person thinks it is worth. Maybe they know something you don't know? Perhaps it
        is worth as much or as little as they think it is. The point of the Forecast Exchange
        is to use the last traded price as the probability of the prediction succeeding,
        giving possibly valuable information about the future.
    </p>
    <div class="horRule">
        <hr />
    </div>
    <a name="<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_EARNMONEY %>">
        <h2>
            How do I earn money?</h2>
    </a>
    <p>
        There are two ways to make money in this game. The first is to gamble on the prediction
        going in. If it does, each of your stocks will end up being bought by the Forecast
        Exchange for 100. This is risky, of course, because if the prediciton fails, you will
        get nothing for your stocks. The other way to make money is to buy and sell predictions
        before they go out of date.
    </p>
    <p>
        For example, assume you own 10 stocks in a prediction. You manage to sell the stocks for
        80 each, pocketing 800 moneys. Later you see an offer in the same prediction. Another
        trader offers to sell 10 stocks in the same prediction for 50 each. You buy them, paying
        500 moneys. The difference between 800 and 500 is your profit on the two trades. By
        trading like this you might increase your stack of cash.
    </p>
    <div class="horRule">
        <hr />
    </div>
    <a name="<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_NEWPREDICTION %>">
        <h2>
            What happens when a new prediction is created?</h2>
    </a>
    <p>
        When a new prediction is introduced to the Forecast Exchange, every trader will
        get 50 stocks in this prediction. In addition, every trader receives 500 moneys
        to trade with. A trader should at this time familiarise him-/herself with the 
        prediction and its success criteria and make up their mind on how probable the
        predictions is.
    </p>
    <p>
        From this moment on the traders can try to buy or sell these in accordance with 
        their belief in how probable the event is to succeed. This all traders can do until 
        the predictions ends.
    </p>
    <p>
        The moneys received will go into the trader's cash and can be used to buy any prediction,
        not just the new prediction. The reason behind giving moneys every time a new prediciton
        is introduced is to give traders who have lost everything a new chance to trade.
    </p>
    <div class="horRule">
        <hr />
    </div>
    <a name="<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_PREDICTIONCLOSED %>">
        <h2>
            What happens when a prediction is closed?</h2>
    </a>
    <p>
        When a prediction reaches its end date or when a prediction reaches its failure
        or success criteria, the prediction is closed and no more trading in this prediction
        is possible. Now there are two possible scenarios.
    </p>
    <p>
        In the first scenario the prediction has succeeded. Then all traders get 100 moneys
        for each prediction they own. The trader with the most predictions at this time,
        has won the honor of best trader in this prediction.
    </p>
    <p>
        In the second scenario the prediction has failed. No traders get any money for any
        predictions they own. Instead a calculation is made to see who has made the most
        money by trading away their predictions before it was too late. The trader who has
        made the most money (which is not necessarily the one with the fewest predictions
        at this time) has won the honor of best trader in this prediction.
    </p>
    <p>
        In either scenario, whatever a trader has made of cash he keeps. The trader can
        then use the cash to trade in other predictions.
    </p>
    <div class="horRule">
        <hr />
    </div>
    <a name="<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_BUY %>">
        <h2>
            How do I buy stocks?</h2>
    </a>
    <p>
        To buy a stock, go to the "Marketplace". In the list over active predictions, click
        on the ticker of the prediction you want to buy. This will take you to a page
        giving information about the prediction and a list of active offers.
    </p>
    <p>
        The available stocks to buy are marked with a shopping cart with a small plus and
        an action saying "Buy". If you like any of the offers you can accept it by clicking
        the "Buy" link. If you have enough cash, the stocks will be added to your portfolio.
    </p>
    <p>
        If you do not find any offers you like, you can create a new offer yourself. When you
        click the "new offer" you will be taken to page where you can create a new buy offer.
        Select the box "Make an offer to buy more stocks", choose how many stocks you want to
        buy and the price you are willing to pay. Finally, choose for how long the offer will
        be active and click "Make the offer". The offer is now active and other traders can
        accept it if they like it.
    </p>
    <div class="horRule">
        <hr />
    </div>
    <a name="<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_SELL %>">
        <h2>
            How do I sell stocks?</h2>
    </a>
    <p>
        To sell a stock, go to your portfolio. In the list over current stocks, click
        on the ticker of the prediction you want to sell. This will take you to a page
        giving information about the prediction and a list of active offers.
    </p>
    <p>
        If other traders are interested in buying your stocks they have a shopping cart 
        with a small minus and an action saying "Sell". If you like any of the offers you can 
        accept it by clicking the "Sell" link. You will receive cash and your portfolio
        will be reduced.
    </p>
    <p>
        If you do not find any offers you like, you can create a new offer yourself. When you
        click the "new offer" you will be taken to page where you can create a new sell offer.
        Select the box "Make an offer to sell more stocks", choose how many stocks you want to
        sell and the price you want to get for them. Finally, choose for how long the offer will
        be active and click "Make the offer". The offer is now active and other traders can
        accept it if they like it.
    </p>
    <div class="horRule">
        <hr />
    </div>
    <a name="<%= HelpController.HELPAREA_CANCEL %>">
        <h2>
            How do I cancel an offer I made?</h2>
    </a>
    <p>
        To cancel an offer you made go to the "Marketplace". In the list over active predictions,
        on the ticker of the prediction you made the offer on. This will take you to a page
        giving information about the prediction and a list of active offers.
    </p>
    <p>
        Offer that you made will be marked by a trader symbol and an action saying "Cancel your
        offer to buy" or "Cancel your offer to sell". Click on the action and the offer is removed
        from the market.
    </p>
    <div class="horRule">
        <hr />
    </div>
    <a name="icons">
        <h2>
            Overview of the icons used on this site</h2>
    </a>
    <img src="images/silk/user.png" />
    Icon representing a trader<br />
    <img src="images/silk/briefcase.png" />
    Icon representing a trader's portfolio<br />
    <img src="images/silk/coins.png" />
    Icon representing a trader's cash<br />
    <br />
    <img src="images/silk/feed.png" />
    Icon representing a feed (RSS)<br />
    <img src="images/silk/newspaper.png" />
    Icon identifying a news item<br />
    <img src="images/silk/bell.png" />
    Icon representing an announcement<br />
    <img src="images/silk/information.png" />
    Icon identifying some information<br />
    <img src="images/silk/exclamation.png" />
    Icon representing a warning<br />
    <img src="images/silk/lightbulb.png" />
    Icon identifying a tip of some kind<br />
    <img src="images/silk/help.png" />
    Icon identifying some help related information<br />
    <br />
    <img src="images/silk/chart_curve.png" />
    Icon representing a chart (link to chart)<br />
    <br />
    <img src="images/silk/cart_add.png" />
    Buy stocks (or stocks being requested)<br />
    <img src="images/silk/cart_delete.png" />
    Sell stocks (or stocks being offered)<br />
    <br />
    <img src="images/silk/sport_8ball.png" />
    Icon representing a prediction - the key object on the forecast exchange<br />
    <img src="images/silk/weather_sun.png" />
    Icon representing the current "state" of a prediction - in this case it's looking
    good<br />
    <img src="images/silk/weather_cloudy.png" />
    Icon representing the current "state" of a prediction - in this case looking ok
    but not perfect<br />
    <img src="images/silk/weather_clouds.png" />
    Icon representing the current "state" of a prediction - and it's getting worse..<br />
    <img src="images/silk/weather_rain.png" />
    Icon representing the current "state" of a prediction - you starting to get the
    picture?<br />
    <img src="images/silk/weather_lightning.png" />
    Icon representing the current "state" of a prediction - in this case looking really
    bad<br />
    <img src="images/silk/accept.png" />
    Icon representing a prediction that succeeded<br />
    <img src="images/silk/delete.png" />
    Icon representing a prediction that failed<br />
    <br />
    <img src="images/silk/award_star_gold_2.png" />
    Predictum, a medal awarded to the trader earning the most money by trading if the prediction succeeds.<br />
    <img src="images/silk/award_star_gold_1.png" />
    Fatalum, a medal awarded to the trader earning the most money by trading if the prediction fails.<br />
    <br />
    <img src="images/silk/cog.png" />
    Icon representing administration tasks / items<br />
    <br />
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